ARI HERZOG

My Personal Blog

How Pandemics End

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Pandemic is defined, according to Merriam-Webster, as:

“an outbreak of a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects an exceptionally high proportion of the population”

This is the noun. There’s also an adjective which I never considered using but I digress.

Looking back at five pandemics in history — the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, the Great Plague of London, smallpox, and cholera — vaccination did not exist for the first three. In those instances, sick people were avoided or isolated. Smallpox was eradicated after 200 years of vaccines. Cholera still exists but was mostly wiped out through access to clean drinking water and improved sewage treatment.

Which brings us to the current pandemic. Over 150 vaccines are being developed to combat COVID-19. Healthcare experts suggest clinical trials and regulatory approvals won’t be finalized until the second half of 2021.

Unfortunately, vaccines may not end the pandemic — because surveys continue to indicate that 25-50% of the U.S. population will refuse vaccination.

One of the latest is a survey of 1,267 Americans, conducted by Tufts University, indicating that 57% are willing to receive a vaccine, 18% are opposed, and 24% don’t know. (By the way, there is fascinating data in that survey about race, income, and education inequities about vaccination.)

An earlier Pew survey of 10,957 Americans indicated 72% would take a vaccine if it was offered today.

I don’t know why there’s a divergence between the two polls, as they’re both representative, but I don’t think one is any less valid than the other.

One of the reasons why people are skeptical about vaccines (evidenced by perusing Facebook comments, such as on this Southwest Florida TV station page) is because of potential side effects.

This could be assuaged with education.

“In a small clinical trial with the kinds of platforms that are being examined here for COVID-19, you rarely see severe reactions,” says Wayne Koff, president and CEO of the Human Vaccines Project, a public-private partnership that seeks to accelerate vaccine development. Adults and children receive millions of doses of approved vaccines each year across the world, and severe reactions are extremely rare.

– National Geographic, June 30, 2020

When you think about the millions (billions?) of dollars spent on the global race to create vaccines, and if even 25% are unwilling to get the vaccine and therefore not help to eradicate the pandemic, I wonder if the pandemic will ever end.

7 Predictions for Post-Pandemic Life

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From the workplace to education to music concerts to more, here are seven predictions about our post-pandemic life from expert sources.

1. Work:

Gartner suggests nine workplace trends that could change after the pandemic, such as humanizing employees.

While some organizations have recognized the humanitarian crisis of the pandemic and prioritized the well-being of employees as people over employees as workers, others have pushed employees to work in conditions that are high risk with little support — treating them as workers first and people second.

Be deliberate in which approach you take and be mindful of the effects on employee experience, which will be long-lasting. Address inequities if remote and on-site employees have been treated differently. Engage task workers in team culture and create a culture of inclusiveness.

2. Education:

The World Economic Forum suggests education will be reshaped in three ways, including public-private partnerships.

From Microsoft and Google in the U.S. to Samsung in Korea to Tencent, Ping An, and Alibaba in China, corporations are awakening to the strategic imperative of an educated populace. While most initiatives to date have been limited in scope, and relatively isolated, the pandemic could pave the way for much larger-scale, cross-industry coalitions to be formed around a common educational goal.

3. Travel:

ForeignPolicy.com asked seven experts for their post-pandemic travel predictions. Rolf Potts, the travel essayist, thinks there will be less desire to visit popular places.

A constant source of travel headlines in recent years has been tourist overcrowding in places such as Venice and Bali, and I doubt the desire to go to so-called hot spots or top-ten-list destinations will drive the next wave of travel. It will be the desire simply to go, and to figure things out along the journey. Think road trip or backpacking adventure, not package tour.

4. Libraries:

Librarians chime in about curbside pickups, access to online resources, how many libraries existed during the 1918 pandemic, and how some institutions are bringing back the telephone.

Realizing that many seniors who showed up in person at the libraries aren’t comfortable moving online, Anything Libraries, a district of seven libraries in Adams County, Colorado, have staffed up their midday hours to man a telephone call center. Users can call to “just say hi” or talk about what’s on their minds. The message the library wants to convey even during the pandemic, according to the director Pam Smith: “We are here for you.”

5. College Sports:

This prediction is about revenue (or, the lack of it). A recent survey of athletic directors indicates that 86% believe the future is bleak.

All of it hints at a possible future that includes cutting sports, slashing salaries, laying off staff, and weighing ability to fully funding existing sports if finances become too tight.

6. Music Concerts:

Written in May 2020, this prediction by industry professionals is that music concerts will return to pre-pandemic levels in 18-24 months.

Toby Mamis, a longtime management representative for Alice Cooper, says “I don’t think anyone knows what the ‘new normal’ will be, and anyone who says they do, really doesn’t. General admission standing shows? Reserved seats three or four feet apart in alternative rows? Restrooms? Lines to get in? The economic models are challenging to say the least.”

7. Quiet:

In this fascinating BBC report, the pandemic ushered in a respect for silence and there’s a growing trend that access to solitude should be a human right.

“I think when everything goes back to ‘normal’ there will have been this new precedent set – a benchmark of what quiet is possible, and a new perception of our soundscape… Most people know constant stimulus is not good for your health. But then most authorities see noise as something that can only be mitigated by spending a lot of money. And the argument is always that noise is the product of activity that brings money to a community. The cost to quality of life is overlooked.”

– Erica Walker, postdoctoral researcher at Boston University’s School of Public Health and founder of Noise and the City, a campaign organisation studying urban noise levels

Follow the Mask Wearing Protocol

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I work part-time as a delivery driver. I have entered a lot of restaurants in recent weeks and there is an observable trend of staff of all ages covering their mouths but not their noses. Worse, some wear masks over their chin — whether making pizza or ringing up customer orders.

These staff need to be educated on the mask wearing protocol.

Everyone should know that masks (and bandanas, balaclavas, gaiters, and other face coverings) are supposed to cover your mouth, nose, and chin. It shouldn’t be too tight but it definitely shouldn’t be loose. If you cough, sneeze, or simply exhale while wearing the mask, droplets should remain inside the mask. And, always have a second mask nearby in case the first one gets wet or uncomfortable.

Kudos to Walmart, Starbucks, Best Buy, Walgreens, Home Depot, Costco, and other companies for stepping up their commitment to social responsibility and requiring customer masks. I assume the employees are also wearing masks. I hope they’ve been taught the protocol.

To be fair, one reason for bad mask wearing could be the brand. I’ve observed many restaurant workers wearing a similar style that is so narrow that it only covers the mouth.

I have it down to a near-science to know which restaurant is more likely to exhibit which behavior. Sometimes I reject the order. Other times I accept it to see if the employee trend changed.

If you are home or in a car or outside by yourself or with your social bubble, do what you want. But if you’re inside — and in a place where other people can enter (and see you) — follow the mask wearing protocol and do your part to flatten the curve.

P.S. To customers wherever you are: Please don’t harass the staff.

If the Coronavirus Stays In Our Language Forever

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According to Merriam-Webster, the word “coronavirus” was first used in 1968 and “pandemic” in 1666.

The population is smart enough by now to know what the words mean. Further, they grasp socioeconomic ramifications beyond the words themselves. They know what a case means. They know about distancing. They know about face coverings. They know about essential workers. And so on and so on and so on.

Why do we continue to say coronavirus? Why do we still say pandemic? Are these supposed to be reminders that our lives are different?

CNN’s homepage mentions the word “coronavirus” 10 times, such as:

  • …after coronavirus diagnosis
  • Coronavirus canceled…
  • How coronavirus moves…
  • Tracking coronavirus…
  • …he had coronavirus
  • Coronavirus classroom…
  • …you from coronavirus

Is this representative of our daily media landscape until vaccine deployment whenever that occurs?

Whether I’m on a sidewalk or in a store or at a park, people are using these words in their everyday vernacular.

I’m not complaining because I can’t think of better words; but the time approaches when one more utterance of the coronavirus this or the pandemic that is one more occasion for sensationalism and annoyance.

Beyond the Pandemic

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Four months ago, Ed Yong, a staff writer at The Atlantic, wrote a 5,453-word essay about the end of the pandemic.

While many of his medical, scientific, and economic perspectives likely need updating (such as the President’s then-popularity), there are two concepts that struck me.

First, he wrote about what we should expect.

“After 9/11, the world focused on counterterrorism. After COVID-19, attention may shift to public health. Expect to see a spike in funding for virology and vaccinology, a surge in students applying to public-health programs, and more domestic production of medical supplies. Expect pandemics to top the agenda at the United Nations General Assembly. Anthony Fauci is now a household name.”

Second, he wrote about what we should appreciate.

“People, businesses, and institutions have been remarkably quick to adopt or call for practices that they might once have dragged their heels on, including working from home, conference-calling to accommodate people with disabilities, proper sick leave, and flexible child-care arrangements.”

“Perhaps the nation will learn that preparedness isn’t just about masks, vaccines, and tests, but also about fair labor policies and a stable and equal health-care system. Perhaps it will appreciate that health-care workers and public-health specialists compose America’s social immune system, and that this system has been suppressed.”

The pandemic may not end for a while.

In the meantime, I hope that society can put aside its differences and work together to fix and improve socioeconomic policies and practices.

The Dap

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Shortly after the coronavirus made itself known in the United States and there was ambiguity about its transmission, I read a Boston Herald article.

The article profiled a 2014 report in the American Journal of Infection Control about an educational experiment with gloves and E. coli bacteria. The scientists concluded that the fist bump was the most hygienic hand greeting, compared to the high five and the handshake.

I tweeted that on March 5. It was a Thursday and I worked as a high school substitute teacher. Over the next week, I avoided shaking hands with everyone. Instead, I fist bumped.

I don’t remember my first fist bump. It was years ago.

Until I clicked around while writing this blog post, I did not know the fist bump is considered a dap. I’d seen plenty of daps over the years, too.

Then I came across a history of the fist bump by LaMont Hamilton. He wrote that the dap began during the Vietnam War when Black soldiers agreed “to convey their commitment to looking after one another. Several unfortunate cases of Black soldiers reportedly being shot by White soldiers during combat served as the impetus behind this physical act of solidarity.”

That’s fascinating.

“The dap was banned at all levels of the military, and thus many Black soldiers were court-martialed, jailed, and even dishonorably discharged as a punishment for dapping. Military repression of the dap further cemented a desire for a symbol of solidarity and protection among Black men.”